I want to talk about timing today because I think a lot of Richmond and Burnaby condo owners who have been considering the move up to a townhome are about to face a decision point that is worth thinking through carefully.
The fall real estate market in Metro Vancouver typically reactivates in September. Listings pick up. Buyers who spent August on the sidelines come back. The energy in the market shifts noticeably from the quieter summer pace. And this year, there is a specific dynamic layered on top of that seasonal pattern that I think changes the calculus for upsizers in a meaningful way.
CMHC's 2026 housing market outlook projects that buyers will act ahead of expected higher mortgage rates in 2027. Let me be clear about what that means in practice. If that projection is accurate, the fall of 2026 is going to see a wave of demand from people who have been sitting on the fence, who have watched the market stabilize, who have seen rates hold steady at manageable levels, and who have decided that waiting any longer carries more risk than acting. That demand coming back into the market simultaneously is what shifts conditions from buyer-friendly to something more competitive.
We are already seeing early signals of this. Realtors across the Greater Vancouver region are reporting multiple offer situations returning on well-priced properties under $1.8 million.Burnaby North and South are showing townhome demand that is exceptional, with benchmark prices up 5.2 percent year over year in that segment. These are not widespread market-wide conditions yet. But they are appearing in the exact segments and locations that Richmond and Burnaby upsizers are shopping in.
Here is the picture as I see it from where I sit in this market every day.
The Richmond market right now still has 2,059 active listings with an absorption rate of 5.4 percent and an average sold price of $1,136,078. Properties are selling in 40 days on average. That is still a buyer's market by definition. The townhome segment specifically has 403 active listings, an absorption rate of 8.7 percent, and an average sold price of $1,025,442, with homes selling in 33 days. Prices in the townhome segment are already up 1.3 percent from the 90-day average.
If you are selling a condo to buy a townhome, the question is not just about the market for the thing you are buying. It is about the market for the thing you are selling. Right now the condo segment is soft. Apartment sales across Metro Vancouver fell 17.8 percent year over year in July, the steepest decline of any property type. If CMHC's 2027 rate projection brings buyers back into the market in September and October, that softness in the apartment segment is one of the first things that changes. The buyers who have been sitting out the condo market come back first because condos are the most accessible entry point for people who have been waiting on the sidelines.
What that means for you as an upsizer is that your condo may be easier to sell in October than it is today, but the townhome you are trying to buy may also be more competitive in October than it is today. The two sides of your transaction do not necessarily move in your favour at the same time.
This is the nuance that I think most people miss when they think about timing. It is not just about when the market is best for buyers. It is about the window where the condo you are selling and the townhome you are buying are both in conditions that work for your transition simultaneously. That window exists right now and the data suggests it may begin to close as fall approaches.
I am not telling you to panic. Upsizing is a significant decision and it needs to make sense for your life, your finances, and your timeline. What I am saying is that if you have been planning to make this move and you have been waiting for a reason to start the process, the combination of current market conditions and the forward-looking rate environment is a reasonable reason to start now rather than in three months.
Properties that are sitting past 30 days on a properly-priced listing currently mean room to negotiate three to seven percent off the list price. On a $1.1 million townhome, that negotiating room is $33,000 to $77,000. That is the kind of number that changes what your transition looks like financially.
If you want to sit down and map out what your upsizing move looks like from start to finish before the fall market kicks in, reach out. I work in Richmond and Burnaby every day and I can give you a clear, honest picture of where you stand.
Neville Mak, REALTOR® The Real Brokerage 778-688-6667 | nevillemakre@gmail.com | nevillemak.ca Serving Richmond and Burnaby