Condos Are Recovering. Townhomes Are Still Under Pressure. Here Is Why That Is the Best Possible News for Upsizers in Richmond.

I want to talk about something this week that I think is the most important market dynamic for Richmond upsizers right now, and it is one that almost nobody is putting together in the way that I think it deserves.

Two things are happening in the Metro Vancouver market simultaneously. Condo markets are recovering. Seventy-five percent of townhome markets are still declining.

Read that again slowly because the implications for someone selling a condo to buy a townhome are significant.

If you own a condo in Richmond right now, you are sitting in a segment that is bouncing back. Sixty-seven percent of condo markets across Canada are currently rising, up from 50 percent just a month ago. In Richmond specifically, condo prices are trending up 9 percent versus the 90-day average. The buyers who sat out summer are coming back to the condo market first because it is the most accessible entry point in this city. Your asset is recovering.

At the same time, seventy-five percent of townhome markets nationally are still declining. Prices in that segment are still under pressure. The thing you want to buy has not found its floor yet in the way that condos have.

For an upsizer, that divergence is the most favourable possible configuration. You are selling into a recovering market and buying into one that is still correcting. Both sides of your transaction are moving in the direction that benefits you simultaneously. I have been doing this long enough to tell you that this kind of alignment does not happen often and it does not last long when it does.

Let me put some numbers around it so this feels concrete rather than abstract.

The Richmond condo market currently has 933 active listings with 55 sold in the last 30 days at an average sold price of $675,736, properties selling in 49 days, and an absorption rate of 5.9 percent. That is where you are selling from. Your condo has selection and demand returning to it.

The attached home benchmark across Metro Vancouver sits at $1,028,800 based on the August GVR data, down 4.4 percent year over year and essentially flat month over month. That is the townhome you are buying into. Still corrected. Still below peak. Still available with negotiating room.

In the city of Vancouver specifically, attached sales on the west side rose 12 percent month over month in August while East Vancouver fell almost 35 percent, showing how location-specific the recovery is becoming. Richmond and Burnaby townhomes are not in the frothy recovery category yet. The product you want is still available at prices that reflect the correction period we have been in, not the recovery period that is beginning.

In Richmond specifically, Hamilton and East Cambie have already moved into balanced market conditions with absorption rates of 13.6 and 12.9 percent respectively. But the broader Richmond townhome inventory remains well-stocked with 402 active listings across the city. There is still genuine selection in Hamilton, West Cambie, and the areas around Capstan Village. The window to find well-priced ground-oriented product with a garage and real square footage, while writing an offer with subjects and reasonable terms, is still open. It is just getting narrower.

The Burnaby picture is also worth noting here. The Edmonds and Metrotown corridors continue to offer townhome inventory that compares favourably to Richmond on a price-per-square-foot basis. If your commute patterns or school catchment preferences point you east, Burnaby may deliver more home for your money right now than a comparable Richmond address, and the same dynamic applies: condo recovering, townhome still under pressure, which means the spread between your sell and your buy is working in your favour in both cities.

Sellers who list in the last week of August and first two weeks of September routinely capture attention before the flood of fall inventory hits MLS, and the window for that timing is still partially open in late September. If you have been thinking about listing your condo and making the move, the combination of returning condo demand and continued townhome softness makes the next four to six weeks one of the most strategically favourable windows for an upsizing transaction that Richmond has seen in recent memory.

This is the kind of market alignment that I talk about when clients ask me to tell them honestly when the right time is. This is it. Not because I am trying to generate urgency. Because the data genuinely says so.

Reach out. Let's map out what your specific move looks like before both sides of this equation shift further.

Neville Mak, REALTOR® The Real Brokerage 778-688-6667 | nevillemakre@gmail.com | nevillemak.ca Serving Richmond and Burnaby