Hamilton and East Cambie Are No Longer Buyer's Markets. What That Means for Upsizers in Richmond Right Now.

I want to talk about something specific this week that I think upsizers in Richmond are not paying close enough attention to.

The neighbourhood-level data for Richmond condos and townhomes just shifted in a way that matters. While the city-wide Richmond condo market sits at a 5.9 percent absorption rate and is still technically in buyer's market territory, two specific neighbourhoods have already moved past that designation.

East Cambie sits at a 12.9 percent absorption rate. Hamilton is at 13.6 percent. Both of those numbers put them squarely in balanced market conditions by GVR's own framework, which defines balanced as the range where neither buyers nor sellers hold a clear advantage. East Cambie has 31 active listings with 4 sold in the last 30 days at an average price of $859,000 and 27 days on market. Hamilton has 66 active listings with 9 sold at an average of $1,069,867 and 63 days on market.

Why does this matter for upsizers specifically?

Because Hamilton and East Cambie are two of the most important neighbourhoods for anyone thinking about stepping up from a condo to a townhome in Richmond. These are the areas where the ground-oriented product that upsizers want, the newer builds with garages, EV charging, proper floor plans, and outdoor space, is concentrated. And these are the areas where the market is tightening first, moving out of buyer's territory and into balanced conditions while the rest of Richmond still appears soft on the surface.

This is exactly how real estate market recovery works. It does not happen all at once across an entire city. It starts in the most desirable and supply-constrained sub-markets and radiates outward. Hamilton and East Cambie are showing you where Richmond is heading before the headline numbers catch up.

The broader Richmond condo market that you are selling into as an upsizer still gives you real leverage. The city-wide condo market has 933 active listings with only 55 sold in the last 30 days at an average sold price of $675,736, properties sitting 49 days on average, and an absorption rate of 5.9 percent. Your buyer pool has options and you need to price your condo correctly to capture attention in that environment. Homes priced within one percent of their eventual sale value are selling in an average of 22 days in this market. Homes priced more than five percent above market value are taking 71 days on average and typically selling for less than they would have if they had been priced right from day one. That math is unforgiving and it is the most important thing I tell condo sellers right now.

But here is the thing about the upsizing math that changes when the neighbourhood you are buying into moves from buyer to balanced. The negotiating room compresses. The days on market shrinks. The sense of time pressure that gave you the upper hand as a buyer in Hamilton six months ago is diminishing. An absorption rate of 13.6 percent in Hamilton means that of every 100 townhomes listed, nearly 14 are selling each month. That is not a market where sellers are sitting and waiting for a low offer. That is a market where a well-priced townhome is being transacted within a reasonable timeline, which means you need to be ready to move when you find the right one.

The overall picture for a Richmond upsizer right now is still compelling. Richmond condo prices are trending up 9 percent versus the 90-day average, which means the equity position in your current place may be stronger than you assumed. The condo you are selling is still in a market that gives buyers choice and negotiating room. And the townhome you are stepping into is in the early stages of a tightening that, if the trajectory continues, will make conditions less favourable for buyers as fall progresses into winter.

The composite benchmark price sits near $1.28 million, up modestly year-over-year but still below the 2022 peak. Detached home average price increased by 2.6 percent year-over-year. Attached home average price decreased by 3.5 percent year-over-year to $1.18 million. The townhome segment still has room to run on the upside from a value perspective. You are not buying at a recovered price. You are buying at a price that reflects a meaningful discount from the 2022 peak while the segments around it are starting to move.

If you have been thinking about the move from your Richmond condo to a townhome and you have been watching Hamilton or East Cambie specifically, the data is telling you to stop watching and start acting. I can show you what is available, what the strata documents look like on the buildings I would and would not recommend, and what a competitive offer looks like in a balanced market. Reach out.

Neville Mak, REALTOR® The Real Brokerage 778-688-6667 | nevillemakre@gmail.com | nevillemak.ca Serving Richmond and Burnaby