Sales Lost Momentum in July. Here Is the Honest Read for Upsizers in Richmond and Burnaby.

The GVR released their July 2026 numbers on August 4th and the headline was blunt. Home sales across Metro Vancouver fell nearly ten percent relative to July last year, erasing the ten percent gain we saw in June that had everyone talking about a potential market shift. The GVR's own language for it was direct: sales lost brief momentum.

I want to give you my honest read of what that means if you are a condo owner in Richmond or Burnaby thinking about upsizing to a townhome, because I think the interpretation matters as much as the number itself.

One month does not make a trend. June's broad gains across all housing types were genuinely notable and Andrew Lis at GVR was right to flag them as a potential early signal of a shift. July pulling back does not erase that signal. What it tells you is that the recovery, if that is what we are seeing, is not going to be a straight line upward. It is going to look like what every real estate recovery in this market has looked like historically: two steps forward, one step back, slow and uneven until the momentum becomes undeniable. We are somewhere in the early stages of that sequence right now.

What has not changed despite the July pullback is more important than what has.

The August 2026 Vancouver real estate market analysis notes that this is one of the most favourable move-up markets Greater Vancouver has seen in nearly a decade, with inventory up, rates meaningfully lower than two years ago, and sellers of larger homes increasingly negotiable. The composite benchmark across Metro Vancouver sits at $1,099,100, down six percent from a year ago. The townhome benchmark is $1,046,200. The condo benchmark is $695,200. Both sides of your upsizing transaction have corrected from their peak. The price gap between condos and townhomes has compressed meaningfully since 2022.

In Richmond specifically, the market conditions that have made this a favourable environment for move-up buyers remain intact. The overall absorption rate sits at 5.4 percent. The townhome segment specifically has an 8.7 percent absorption rate with 403 active listings and an average sold price of $1,025,442, selling in 33 days. That is the most active segment in the city and it has been consistently so for several months now. One slow July in the overall market does not change what is happening in this specific segment.

The average list-to-sale price ratio in Metro Vancouver for July 2026 came in at around 96.8 percent, meaning sellers are accepting offers roughly 3.2 percent below their asking price on average. That negotiating room is real and it exists right now across Richmond and Burnaby townhomes. For an upsizer buying in the $1 million to $1.2 million range, a 3 percent negotiation off asking price is $30,000 to $36,000 of real money that goes directly toward your transition costs, your renovations, or simply staying in a stronger financial position after the move.

The other thing I want to name directly is what the August market environment looks like on the ground for motivated buyers. August is traditionally one of the quieter months for buyer activity. Families are wrapping up summer. Back to school is approaching. The urgency that characterizes spring and fall markets is absent. That means sellers who have been sitting on the market through July are increasingly motivated as August progresses, and the competition from other buyers is lighter than it will be in September when the fall market traditionally reactivates.

Analysts tracking the Vancouver market are noting that buyers who act between now and spring 2027 are likely to look back on this period as one of the more favourable entry points before the next round of potential rate changes pulls sidelined demand back into the market and shifts leverage back toward sellers. I am not going to put a date on when that happens because nobody can. But the logic of that argument is sound and it aligns with what I am seeing in Richmond and Burnaby week to week.

If you have been watching this market from the sidelines and one slow July headline has you thinking the moment has passed, I want to be direct with you. It has not. The conditions that make this a good time to move up are structural, not monthly. They are about the relationship between where prices are, where rates are, and how much inventory sellers are competing against. None of those three things changed materially in July.

If you are ready to have a real conversation about what the move looks like for your specific situation, I am here for it.

Neville Mak, REALTOR® The Real Brokerage 778-688-6667 | nevillemakre@gmail.com | nevillemak.ca Serving Richmond and Burnaby