There Is a Lot of Hidden Inventory in the Richmond Market Right Now. Here Is What Upsizers Need to Understand.

I want to talk about something that does not show up in the standard market stats but that I think matters quite a bit for anyone who owns a condo in Richmond and is thinking about making the move to a townhome.

There is a concept in real estate called shadow inventory. It refers to properties that are not yet listed on the MLS but are coming. Unsold developer units that are sitting in completed or near-completed buildings waiting to be released. Owners who have been thinking about selling but have been waiting to see if the market improves before listing. Investors who bought presales years ago that are now completing, and who need to decide whether to hold or sell into a market that has shifted significantly from where they expected it to be when they signed.

In Richmond right now, that shadow inventory is real and it is worth understanding before you make your move. Active resale condo inventory in Richmond has nearly doubled in 24 months, rising from 472 listings in January 2024 to 938 listings as of late 2025, and the market entered 2026 with the expectation of continuing absorption. The presale market has 66 active developments in Richmond ranging from completion dates in 2026 through to 2029. As those buildings complete and units hit the market, either as resales or developer releases, they add to the supply picture that buyers are navigating.

For a condo owner who is selling to upsize, understanding this dynamic is important for two reasons. First, it tells you something about pricing your condo correctly when you list. This is not a market where you can afford to be aggressive on asking price and wait for a buyer to come to you. Richmond's overall absorption rate sits at 5.4 percent with 111 sales in the last 30 days against 2,059 active listings. The buyers are there but they have options. Pricing sharp and presenting well is not optional in this environment. It is the difference between a 40-day sale and a 90-day one.

Second, and more importantly for upsizers, the shadow inventory picture actually works in your favour on the purchase side. The townhome market in Richmond right now has 403 active listings with an absorption rate of 8.7 percent and an average sold price of $1,025,442. That is the most active segment in the city. But the presence of broader inventory overhang in the condo segment means that sellers of townhomes, particularly those who are also trying to move up or move on, are acutely aware of the market they are selling into. That awareness translates into negotiating room for you as the buyer. Sellers who understand that their next purchase is also happening in a buyer's market tend to be more reasonable on price and conditions than sellers who feel like they are the only ones making concessions.

The townhome you are stepping into has also corrected from its peak. The GVR benchmark for attached homes across Greater Vancouver sits at $1,046,200, down five percent from June 2025. You are not buying high. You are buying in a market where prices have adjusted and where, as I mentioned last week, the average sold price for Richmond townhouses is already showing a 1.3 percent uptick from the 90-day average. The floor is forming in the townhome segment.

The mechanics of the upsizing transition are worth thinking through carefully in this environment. When you list your condo, you want to have your financing in order on the purchase side before you are under contract on the sale side, because the bridge between the two transactions needs to be mapped out clearly. The good news is that five year fixed rates in the low to mid four percent range make that math more workable than it was in 2023. And the 30 year amortization option for new construction purchases gives upsizers who are buying a newer townhome some additional monthly payment flexibility that was not available 18 months ago.

Hamilton and West Cambie continue to be the neighbourhoods I focus on most for upsizer clients in Richmond. Newer builds, modern layouts, EV charging, well-funded stratas. Steveston for those who want the lifestyle and have the budget for the premium it commands. The Capstan corridor for anyone who wants new construction with Canada Line access at a price point below the established stations.

If you have been sitting on the upsizing decision and the shadow inventory story feels complicated, that is exactly why having someone who knows this market deeply in your corner makes a difference. I work in Richmond every day. I know what is sitting in pipeline and what is actively selling. That context changes how you approach both sides of your transaction.

Let's talk.

Neville Mak, REALTOR® The Real Brokerage 778-688-6667 | nevillemakre@gmail.com | nevillemak.ca Serving Richmond and Burnaby